The Twelve Candidate Problem

Rea,

Remember when you asked why American elections usually have just two people running? You noticed that even when other candidates exist, it always seems to come down to a Democrat and a Republican. That’s because America’s voting system makes it really hard for third parties to compete.

But what if I told you that France’s 2022 presidential election started with twelve candidates on the ballot? Not twelve total people who wanted to run - twelve serious candidates who each gathered the required 500 endorsements from elected officials across the country.

This creates an interesting problem. If twelve people ran and votes split evenly, someone could theoretically win with just 15% of the vote. That means 85% of voters didn’t want that person as president! France solved this with their “two-round system.”

Here’s how it works: If no candidate gets over 50% in the first round, the top two face off in a second election two weeks later. In 2022, the current president (Macron) got 27.8% and his main challenger got 23.2% in round one - meaning about 73% of French voters initially preferred someone else. But those were the top two, so they advanced.

The two weeks between rounds become fascinating. Candidates who lost must decide who to endorse. Voters who supported eliminated candidates must choose between their head and their heart. Some hold their nose and vote for the “lesser evil.” Others stay home.

In round two, the president won with 58.5% - a clear majority that wouldn’t have been possible with just one round of voting.

This system encourages multiple parties because voters can support their true preference in round one without “wasting” their vote. If your favorite candidate doesn’t make the runoff, you still get to choose between the final two.

Actually, runoffs exist in America too! Austin’s city council elections use the same system. If no candidate gets over 50% in November, the top two face off in December. This happens because Austin, like France, recognized that with multiple candidates, someone might win without majority support.

French politics includes voices across a much wider spectrum because their system doesn’t punish voters for supporting smaller parties in round one. American politics tends to push everyone toward the center of two big coalitions.

Neither system is perfect. France sometimes gets political gridlock when the president’s party doesn’t control parliament. America sometimes excludes viewpoints that don’t fit neatly into two categories. But both systems reflect their countries’ different approaches to the same challenge: how do you turn millions of individual preferences into one collective decision?

Love, Abba